RISK ANALYSIS IN PETROLEUM BUSINESS

RISK ANALYSIS IN PETROLEUM BUSINESS

Grand Seriti Boutique  Hotel, Bandung | February 16-18, 2011 | US$  990,-/participant

Background

Petroleum business is risky business. Petroleum business risks consist of risks affecting its profit, i.e., production, price, costs and government take. There are geological and production risk, market risk, technological risk and country risk.

Risk analysis is important for making decision. Risk analysis consists of sensitivity analysis, decision tree and monte carlo simulation. Applications for reserves estimation and for petroleum exploration and development planning are important for upstream petroleum industry.

 

What Will You Learn?

• Economic Evaluation


• Statistics for Risk Analysis


• Types of Risk Analysis


• Sensitivity Analysis


• Decision Tree


• Monte Carlo Simulation


• Monte Carlo Simulation for Petroleum Exploration and Development

 

Who Could Participate?

• Financial Analyst


• Project Engineering and Economic Team


• Development Planning Team


• Geophysicist and Geologist


• Reservoir Engineers, Production Engineers and Drilling Engineers


• Anybody who wish to learn the course subjects

 

Who is The Instructor?

In this comprehensive course, you will be assisted by a compatible Instructor:

Widjajono Partowidagdo is a Professor in Petroleum Economics and Field Management at the Faculty of Mining and Petroleum Engineering, Institut Teknologi Bandung (ITB), a member of National Energy Council, a member of Supervision Team for Increasing Petroleum Production at Ministry of  Energy and Mineral Resources and advisor for Association of Petroleum National Companies and Indonesian Petroleum Engineers Association.

He was the Head of the Research Group in Drilling and Production Engineering and Management of Oil and Gas at the Faculty of Earth Sciences and Mineral Technology, ITB from 2005-2007, Head of Graduate Program in Development Studies ITB from 1993-2004, Vice Dean for Academic Affairs, Faculty of Mining Technology and Senate Member of ITB from 1994-1997 and Coordinator for Research in Sustainable Development at the Inter-University Center for Economics, University of Indonesia from 1989-1992.

He received his Bachelor in Petroleum Engineering from ITB, MSc in Petroleum Engineering, MSc in Operations Research, MA in Economics and PhD with a dissertation on “An Oil and Gas Supply and Economics Model for Indonesia” from the University of Southern California, Los Angeles, USA.

He has written three books (in Indonesian):  Management and Economy of Oil and Gas, 2002; Understanding Development and Policy Analysis, 2004; and Petroleum and Energy in Indonesia, Problems and Policy Analysis, 2009. He was a coordinating author of Agenda 21, Energy for Sustainable Development, Coordinating Ministry of Environment and UNDP, 2000.

 

Registration Fee:

(Exclude accommodation)

• Registration until February 08, 2011


• US$  990,-/participant


• US$ 880,-/participant for more than 3 (three) participants from 1 (one) Company

 

TRAINING VENUE

Golden Flower Hotel, Bandung

Jalan Hegarmanah no 9-15 Setiabudi, Bandung

Petroleum Economic and Risk Analysis

Petroleum Economic and Risk Analysis

Jayakarta, Bandung | July 20-23, 2010 | Rp. 7.250.000,-

BELAKANG

Pengusahaan minyak dan gas bumi (migas) memerlukan investasi yang besar, resiko yang tinggi, teknologi yang canggih dan pengembalian biaya (pay out time) yang panjang serta penanganan oleh sumber daya manusia dengan kualitas tertentu.

Namun demikian, bisnis migas adalah seperti bisnis yang lain yaitu mencari keuntungan dan mempertahankan stock.

Keuntungan adalah fungsi dari produksi harga, biaya dan penerimaan pemerintah, sedangkan stock diperlukan untuk mempertahankan produksi. Stock dalam bisnis migas adalah proven reserves yang dapat dipertahankan dengan penemuan dari ekplorasi serta enhanced oil recovery. Kontrak migas di Indonesia sebagian besar dilakukan berdasarkan Production Sharing Contract (PSC), oleh sebab itu perlu dipahami mengevaluasi keekonomian yang berkaitan dengan industri hulu migas dengan cermat

TUJUAN

Menambah wawasan dan memberikan pengetahuan yang lebih dalam mengenai keekonomian minyak dan gas bumi bagi mereka yang berkecimpung dalam industri hulu migas.

PESERTA

Mereka yang bekerja dibidang manajemen , keuangan, akuntansi, geologi, engineering, pemboran maupun produksi diperusahaan migas atau karyawan pemda sehubungan dengan otonomi daerah

MATERI

1. Dinamika Pengusahaan MIGAS


2. Cadangan (reserve) dan Produksi MIGAS


3. Metoda-metoda mengukur indikator Keuntungan


4. Menentukan Pilihan dari Alternatif Biaya


5. Pajak dan Penerimaan Pemerintah Bukan Pajak


6. Plan of Development and Autorization for Expenditure


7. Statistik untuk Proyek Migas


8. Manajemen Resiko dan Analisis Sensitivitas


9. Analisis Resiko dan Pengambilan Keputusan


10. Simulasi Monte Carlo


11. Hukum dan Perundang-undangan Pertambangan Migas


12. Kontrak-kontrak Pengusahaan Migas

 

Instructor

Prof. DR. Ir. Widjajono Partowidagdo, M.Sc is a Professor in Petroleum Economics and Field Management at the Faculty of Mining and Petroleum Engineering, Institut Teknologi Bandung and a member of P3 Migas Team (Supervision for Increased Petroleum Production). He was the Head of the Research Group in Drilling and Production Engineering and Management of Oil and Gas at the Faculty of Earth Sciences and Mineral Technology, ITB from 2005-2007, Head of Graduate Program in Development Studies ITB from 1993-2004, Vice Dean for Academic Affairs, Faculty of Mining Technology and Senate Member of ITB from 1994-1997 and Coordinator for Research in Sustainable Development at the Inter-University Center for Economics, University of Indonesia from 1989-1992.

He received his Bachelor in Petroleum Engineering from ITB, MSc in Petroleum Engineering, MSc in Operations Research, MA in Economics and PhD with a dissertation on "An Oil and Gas Supply and Economics Model for Indonesia" from the University of Southern California, Los Angeles, USA. He has written 2 books: Management and Economy of Oil and Gas, 2002 and Understanding Development and Policy Analysis, 2004.

Schedule
July 20-23, 2010
4 days

Venue

Jayakarta, Bandung

Tuition Fee
Rp. 7.250.000,- per participant, excluding accomodation & tax.

 

Economic & Risk Analysis for Oil & Gas Project

Economic & Risk Analysis for Oil & Gas Project

Bogor | August 3-6, 2010 | IDR 8.750.000,-

 

Participant (who should attend):

Technical and-non-technical personnel of Industrial, Oil and Gas Company who involves in or concern with economics & risk analysis techniques and procedures related with design, selection, handling, installation, operation and maintenance of up-stream and down-stream industrial, oil, and gas projects and those who responsible in economic evaluation of a project.

 

Course Objectives (why attend):

This special practical approach course is designed to provide a compressive understanding of applied economics & risk analysis for industrial oil & gas project. The course content designed to help technical or non-technical people who promoted to higher ranks and found themselves confronted with financial terminology to easily understand and immediately practice economics & risk analysis in their new daily work.

 

Program Summary (what the participant will get):

After completion of this practical course, participant will better understand and get improvement on the logic of accounting and than moves to finance and to cost estimating, both capital and operating. Economics and risk analysis through the time value of money, cash low, depreciation and taxation will be given with examples and exercises. Uncertainty analysis based on errors in forecasting is treated from a practical standpoint based on widely-used industrial practice. Managerial attitude are used in the approach to feasibility analysis and approval of capital appropriations.

 

Course Content (what the participant learns):

In this specially designed practical course participant will learn from and discuss with professional instructor the following subjects:

Principles of accounting

• The Accounting Equation


• Data Recording


• Financial Reports


• How to read an Annual Report


• Income Statement

Financing the Corporate

• Source of Funds


• Debt vs Equity Financing


• Investment Decision Making


• Economics Modelling


• Use of the Basic Profit Indicators

Measures of Profitability

• Profitability Indicators


• Calculation Procedures


• Interest and the Future Value of Money


• The Net Present Value


• Decision Criteria

Incremental Analysis

• Basics of Incremental Analysis


• Generating Alternatives


• Absolute and Relative Indicators


• Profit Making Opportunities


• Cost-reducing Projects

Sensitivity Analysis

• Basics of Sensitivity Analysis


• Analyzing the Results


• Price Sensitivity


• Conclusion from Sensitivity

Quick Estimates Methods

• Estimating NCR, PIR and Payout


• Quick Estimate Adjusment


• Estimating IRR


• Other Indicators and Rules of Thumb


• Rules of Probability

Risk Analysis

• Basics of Risk Analysis


• Risk-weighted Expected Value


• The Uncertainty of Risk


• Sensitivity Analysis of Risk


• Projects Risk Analysis

 

Course Leader:

Hilman Ahmad

This specially designed course will be conducted by Hilman Ahmad & Associates, an Independent Consultant in industrial oil and gas, member of the Society of Indonesian Petroleum Engineers, who manage the Professional Industrial Oil & Gas Education Center, and has been practicing production operation & safety and corrosion control engineering in Indonesia for more than twenty-five years. He post-graduated from Tokyo Institute of Technology (sponsored by UNESCO) in 1977. He joined in-field-practice program at Nippon Kokan Steel Company & Research Center Kawasaki, Japan for production facility design & construction and corrosion prevention & control in 1983, and collaborated with Cormon Industrial Research Center Brighton UK for on-line corrosion monitoring development in 2000. He has been delivering training course in production operation, maintenance & safety and corrosion control for personnel from Oil & Gas Company and Petrochemical Industry since 1979.

 

General Information

Certificate of Appreciation

All attendees will receive a certificate of appreciation attesting to their participant in the training. This certificate will be providing in exchange for a completed training questionnaire.

 

Documentation & Dress Code

• Quality training material kits will be on registration, additional papers, & handouts assignment by Our Partner.


• Note-taking by participants is encourage. However, to ensure free and open discussions, no formal records will be kept.


• Casual clothing is recommended. The training atmosphere is informal.

 

Facilities

• Quality training material (hardcopy and softcopy)


• Quality training kits included calculator, T-shirt or jacket, cap, ect.


• Interactive presentation with discussion


• Convenient training facilities with five star quality


• Lunch per day


• Morning and afternoon coffee / tea breaks for along the training


• Certificate of Completion


• Half day city tour at the end of training session following by dinner with entertainment (Optional)


• Exclusive flash disk.

 

Tuition Fee & Registration  Deadline

IDR 8.750.000,-/ Person, Registration deadline a weeks before training held.

 

Minimum Participant

This training will be conducted if we receive registration letter from 3 (three) participants (Minimum)